Readers are familiar with my thesis that currency wars are followed by trade wars and then finally shooting wars among major powers. This happened in the 1930s and it seems to be happening again. Currency wars begin in a condition of too much debt and not enough growth. Countries steal growth from their trading partners
The White House has issued a steady stream of commentary about how the U.S. economy is the best ever (not true) and how we have finally turned the corner from the slow growth of the Obama years (also not true). Sound analysis is often drowned out by political noise and ideological bias. The best way
Most investors are familiar with the conventional definition of an economic recession. It’s defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP combined with rising unemployment and a few other technical factors. But investors may not be as familiar with two other aspects of recession timing. The first is the exact body that makes the determination,
The U.S. fought a financial and cyber war with Iran in 2012–13 with great success. As a result of being excluded from the global payments system, Iran could not receive hard currency for its oil. The value of the Iranian rial plunged on the black market, there were runs on Iranian banks, interest rates
When President Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12, 2018, the world was understandably optimistic that both sides had taken a step back from the brink of war and that a new foundation for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and a formal end to the 1950–53
