Meraglim Blog

This Is How Wars Begin

The South China Sea is a crowded place. It is surrounded by six countries (China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei; Taiwan is on the periphery, leaving aside the issue of whether Taiwan is a “country”). All of these countries lay some claim to exclusive economic zones that overlap in complicated ways because of

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The Longest Recovery Ever? Yes, but Also the Weakest

Although this may come as a surprise to some Americans, especially those stuck in the gig economy who have not had wage increases in years, the U.S. just set a record for the longest U.S. economic expansion ever recorded. As described in this article, the expansion began in June 2009 and just celebrated its 10th anniversary.

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Venezuela Is Losing All Its Gold. Where Is It Going?

The political and social situations in Venezuela are well-known. Venezuela is worse than a failed state. It is a humanitarian crisis of the utmost gravity. Its currency and economy have collapsed. Its role as a major oil exporter has been greatly diminished by economic sanctions. Venezuela’s illegitimate president, Nicolás Maduro, is holed up in the

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In a Global Three-Way Poker Game, the U.S. Is the Sucker

There’s an old saying in poker: If you’re in a three-way poker game and you don’t know who the sucker is… you’re the sucker. The idea is that in a three-handed game, two players will disadvantage the sucker by coordinating their betting and not raising each other. Eventually, the sucker is cleaned out and the

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Once You Move Sourcing out of China, It Doesn’t Come Back

A lot of the criticism of Trump’s trade war tactics with China is based on a misunderstanding of the dynamics of global trade and global supply chains. When the U.S. imports goods from China and then imposes a tariff, the analysts simply multiply the quantity of goods by the size of the tariff and proclaim

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U.S. Military Braces for a Cutoff of Rare Earths by China

  In recent issues of Five Links, I’ve expressed my estimate that China will not cut off exports of rare earths to the U.S. as a way of fighting the trade wars. (Rare earths are metallic elements than can be used in pure form or combined to produce critical components for electronics and automobiles. They

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