With articles like these, the press will have you believe that machine learning can reliably predict whether you’re gay, whether you’ll develop psychosis, whether you’ll have a heart attack and whether you’re a criminal—as well as other ambitious predictions such as when you’ll die and whether your unpublished book will be a bestseller.
It’s all a lie. Machine learning can’t confidently tell such things about each individual. In most cases, these things are simply too difficult to predict with certainty.
MIT Technology Review has published a compelling review arguing for why human intelligence will be needed to augment AI, particularly as related to the inclusion of causal relationships. Of course, we agree with Gary Marcus which is why Raven Predictive Analytics® SaaS is based on human and machine intelligence to build our cognitive maps.
We can’t trust AI systems built on deep learning alone by Karen Hao
“Gary Marcus is not impressed by the hype around deep learning. While the NYU professor believes that the technique has played an important role in advancing AI, he also thinks the field’s current overemphasis on it may well lead to its demise. Marcus, a neuroscientist by training who has spent his career at the forefront of AI research, cites both technical and ethical concerns. From a technical perspective, deep learning may be good at mimicking the perceptual tasks of the human brain, like image or speech recognition. But it falls short on other tasks, like understanding conversations or causal relationships. To create more capable and broadly intelligent machines, often referred to colloquially as artificial general intelligence, deep learning must be combined with other methods.” Click here to continue…
The coordinated drone attack on Saudi oil facilities is a Black Swan event that is reverberating around the world like a meteor strike, awakening copycats and exposing the impossibility of defending against cheap drones of the sort anyone can buy.
The attack’s success should be a wake-up call to everyone tasked with defending highly flammable critical infrastructure: there really isn’t any reliable defense against a coordinated drone attack, nor is there any reliable way to distinguish between an Amazon drone delivering a package and a drone delivering a bomb.
Whatever identification protocol that could be required of drones in the future–an ID beacon or equivalent–can be spoofed. Bring down a legitimate drone, swap out the guidance and payload, and away it goes. Or steal legitimate beacons from suppliers–the list of spoofing workaround options is extensive.
This is asymmetric warfare on a new scale: $100,000 of drones can wreak $100 million in damage.
If it’s impossible to defend against coordinated drone attacks, and impossible to differentiate “good” drones from “bad” drones, then the only reliable defense is to ban drones entirely from vast swaths of territory.
So much for the widespread commercialization of drones.
What sort of light bulbs are going off in the minds of copycats? It doesn’t take much imagination to see the potential for mayhem–and without sacrificing your own life. Any highly flammable target is at risk of a similar attack: fully fueled aircraft, oil/natural gas tankers, trucks carrying fuels, pipelines, etc.
The range and payload of commercially available drones is limited. The big drones can fly hundreds of miles and carry hundreds of pounds of weaponry, but these can be targeted by radar and conventional ground-to-air missiles. So-called hobby drones skimming over the rooftops (or deserts or forests) are difficult to shoot down, especially if the attack is coordinated to arrive from multiple directions.
Small hobby drones may only carry 3 KG (roughly 6 pounds), but how much damage can 3 KG of high explosives cause? The answer is “considerable” if the target is flammable, or lightly shielded electronics.
Larger commercially available drones can carry up to 20 KG or 40 pounds–more than enough explosive capacity to take out any number of targets.
Defense and intelligence agencies have no doubt war-gamed the potential for coordinated drone attacks, and the world’s advanced militaries are already exploring the potential for self-organizing “drone hordes” of hundreds or even thousands of drones overwhelming defenders with sheer numbers. The success of the oil facilities attack proves the effectiveness of much smaller scale drone attacks.
Put yourself in the shoes of those tasked with securing hundreds of miles of pipelines carrying oil and natural gas around the world. What’s your defense against drone attacks? A.I. or remote-operated gun towers every few hundred yards, along thousands of miles of pipelines?
It’s obvious there are no low-cost, effective defenses of thousands of miles of pipelines. (Recall that the Saudis depend on seawater being piped hundreds of kilometers into the desert to inject into oil wells to bring the oil up to the surface. Taking out these water lines and pumps would cripple production, too.)
The only effective way to limit drone attacks is to ban all drones and institute a shoot-on-sight policy for all drones. But that will not negate the potential for coordinated drone strikes or drone attacks on remote facilities.
The mainstream media will be under pressure to downplay the consequences of this attack, but the cat is out of the bag: the Black Swan is a drone. What was “possible” yesterday is now a proven capability, and the consequences are not fully predictable.
Greg Parsons, CEO of Semper Capital, is a former US Marine and a friend of ours who I would like to introduce to you. Greg and his firm have focused their philanthropic/charitable efforts around our Military Veterans. One of the groups they work very closely with is The Heroes Journey, founded by a retired Green Beret Lieutenant Colonel, Scott Mann. The Heroes Journey helps service members transition to civilian life by learning to tell their own stories. Military men and women “find their voice” in transition with the aid of books, workshops, and virtual training. Scott Mann spent nearly two years writing his story. Today it is a play: Last Out-Elegy of a Green Beret. (See the Trailer:https://vimeo.com/345946945)
Semper Capital and CAVU Securities, LLC are proud to bring Last Out to New York City, September 14 & 15, 2019.
Here is the ask: Greg needs your help to make this a reality in the form of sponsorships, introductions to other like-minded influential folks in NYC, donations, ticket sales, etc. If you are interested and able to help, Greg’s managing director, Tom Donnelly, firstname.lastname@example.org, would like to set up a time in the coming weeks to formally introduce you to the project and see where/how you can be helpful.
Please see more information about the production below along with a recent interview of Scott Mann with Mike Huckabee: https://youtu.be/Cmqh3-FfadQ.
LAST OUT: ELEGY OF A GREEN BERET
A Heroes Journey Production
Last Out—Elegy of a Green Beret –(Click here to watch quick video Trailer: https://vimeo.com/345946945 )is a validation of the sacrifices of our country’s heroes and offers a window of opportunity for those seeking training services and storytelling skills to bridge the transition from military to civilian life.
Last Out—Elegy of a Green Beret is a theatrical production by Ret. Lt. Col. Mann that universally depicts the impact of war on veterans and their families. Last Out is a validation of the sacrifices of our country’s heroes and offers hope to those struggling with the transition to civilian life. Last Out stimulates a dialogue to promote understanding, compassion, and community cohesion.
This play is produced by The Heroes Journey, an organization dedicated to supporting veterans and giving them the tools and training they need to share their stories and to bridge the transition from military to civilian life. Each performance is followed by a powerful audience discussion led by the cast, and free resources and reference materials are provided to help combat veterans return to civilian life after deployments. This project has been presented to diverse audiences comprised of veterans, military families, and civilians at theatres across the country.
The Heroes Journey
After terrorists launched an attack on the United States on September 11, 2001, Lt. Col. Scott Mann and his teammates in the 7th Special Forces Group were fueled by a sense of purpose. “We were pushing a much more kinetic path to get at the bad guys and put scalps on the barn,” he said. “It is safe to say a large part of our regiment did the same thing until about 2009, 2010. There were more Taliban than we started, and we lost our way.” When Lt. Col. Mann came home, he found it hard to shed that purpose and to readjust to civilian life. He spent a few years in a dark place.
“What I found in my own transition is I became dark after a couple of years and it was only through learning to tell my story, my hero’s journey I guess, that I started to reconnect with my purpose and find my way home.”
To assist others who are encountering similar struggles, Lt. Col. Mann and his wife, Monty, formed the non-profit organization The Heroes Journey. The Heroes Journey helps service members transition to civilian life by learning to tell their own stories. Military men and women “find their voice” in transition with the aid of books, workshops, and virtual training.
Last Out—Elegy of a Green Beret
Every year 200,000 Veterans transition from military service into civilian life. It is a challenging time that often results in significant personal changes for veterans who must re-discover their voice. Storytelling, a powerful form of communal therapy, is a dynamic tool for coping with the stresses of military transition and strengthening our communities.
“In a back-and-forth time frame covering over 25 years of time (1989-2015) it resembles an ancient Greek tale about warriors and heroes’ journeys–but in this case an American warrior, a Green Beret,” noted a DC theater critic after a performance over Memorial Day weekend. Indeed, Ancient Greek tragedies were a form of storytelling aimed at imparting the experience of war, and when a veteran’s own harrowing struggles are recognized in the story of Last Out, there is a validation that opens the door to letting go and healing.
The play follows Army Green Beret Danny Patton as he fights in battles ranging from tribal Afghanistan to his own living room. As the corrosive gears of war begin to rip apart Danny’s family, his integrity, and his soul, he is thrust into one final, eternal mission. With Valhalla beckoning, Danny discovers that combat can be fueled by vengeance or by love…depending on the price you are willing to pay.
Taking two years to complete, Last Out—Elegy of a Green Beret is based on true stories of modern war told from a downrange and home-front perspective. With a cast made up entirely of veterans and their family members, Last Out is a theatrical experience intended to help civilians better understand the cost of combat to our veterans and their families, and to help warriors utilize the power of story to let go of their pain, healing the wounds of war.
You’ve heard the war stories of the “first in.” This is the untold story of the Last Out.
Thanks for your time and again, to learn more about how you and your firm might support our Military Veterans, please contact Tom Donnelly, email@example.com, a Semper Capital company.
21:35 Cyclical economic and generational shifts throughout history
29:50 Are people ready for Artificial Intelligence’s impact on jobs
36:05 Merging human and machine intelligence using mathematics
46:45 How to find out more about Kevin Massengill’s work
Institutional investors can schedule a proof of concept with the world’s first predictive data analytics firm combining human and artificial intelligence with complexity science. Check out Jim Rickard’s company at Meraglim Holdings to learn more.
You likely know what the U.S. government’s position is on trade wars with China, but what does China’s government think? In this episode, Kevin Massengill joins Robert & Kim to discuss China’s perspective. Massengill’s research offers insight that will aid anyone seeking information on this vital economic issue.
Autonomous Research, one of the leading independent stock analysis firms in the City of London, is in advanced talks about a $110m sale to AllianceBernstein, the US investment management and broking group.
The author of “The Dao of Capital”, Mark Spitznagel, speaks about the negative impact of interest rate manipulations by central banks.
Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments LP founder, discusses the lessons learned from the 2008 financial crisis. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker. (Source: Bloomberg). Click here for the video.