I do forecasting as a full-time job and use my proprietary Bayesian models (and other applied science techniques) to do it. This is how I was able to predict the U.K. would vote for Brexit in June 2016 and the U.S. would elect Trump in 2016. Polls and pundits said that the U.K. would remain in the EU (70% probability) and Hillary would win (90% probability). My methods produced correct forecasts against all odds in both cases.
Bayesian models basically start with an assumption that may be not much more than an educated guess. But the assumption is continually updated by testing the conditional probability that new data would or would not arise if the initial assumption were true or false. That can gradually move the original assumption from 50/50 to 90/10, in which case your forecast is on safe ground.
I’m using that technique again to forecast the 2020 election result. Right now, I have Trump as a winner with a 68% probability. Of course, that could change in either direction.
One of the data points I search for to update my forecast is evidence that progressive anti-Trump forces have learned anything in 2016. Will they offer policies Americans want (Trump’s odds might go down) or will they do nothing but bash Trump (Trump’s odds go up)? As shown in this article, the evidence is that progressives have learned nothing and will continue on the “bash Trump” path, which helps to ensure Trump’s victory.
California has passed a law that keeps a candidate off the primary election ballot unless they release their tax returns. This will have no impact on Trump because he’s certain to be nominated and equally certain not to win California in the general election. It’s just a form of blatant political harassment that has never been aimed at another party or candidate.
The law is probably unconstitutional and will be thrown out by the courts. In the meantime, I’ve updated by Bayesian equation to add weight to the thesis that progressive have learned nothing.
Institutional investors can schedule a proof of concept with the world’s first predictive data analytics firm combining human and artificial intelligence with complexity science. Check out Jim Rickard’s company at Meraglim Holdings to learn more.