I’m more of a fundamental and macro analyst than a technical analyst, but I do pay attention to charts and patterns. Charts have low predictive value in my view, but they are information-rich and are great tools for examining multiple data sets in one glance.
It’s not news that gold has been trading in a range lately and has encountered upside resistance in the $1,360 – $1,370 per ounce range. That’s about where gold got to in early July 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the surprise Brexit vote in the UK. So, gold has been stuck below that ceiling for almost two years.
On the other hand, gold is well off the lows of $1,050 per ounce reached in December 2015. My view is that the December 2015 low marked an end to the 3 1/2; year bear market that began in August 2011 at $1,900 per ounce and took gold down by almost 50 percent. That means we are now in a new bull market that should run for years and take gold to the $10,000 per ounce level in the next few years.
The technician described in this article sees the same data somewhat differently. He views the entire period from 2013 to 2018 as a six-year technical base with breakout potential around $1,375 per ounce. My fundamental bull market analysis and the more traditional technical analysis presented in this article have different reference points, but reach the same conclusion.
Gold is headed much higher beginning with a break-out rally later this year. The last chance to get gold at the old price is right now.
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