It’s impossible to browse the web or watch TV without seeing or hearing about Democrat plans to impeach President Trump. This has been a long time coming. In fact, I first warned readers about this in February 2017 right after Trump was inaugurated. But now it’s here.
As things stand now, the House of Representatives is on track to vote on articles of impeachment by early December. It may be too late in the legislative calendar by then to hold a trial in the Senate before the Christmas recess, so the trial may not be held until the Senate is back in session in late January.
Of course, the Senate will vote to acquit Trump. In some scenarios, the Senate may vote to dismiss the charges without a trial on the grounds that the impeachment itself was illegitimate since it did not allow due process of law to Trump. That has never happened in U.S. history.
The other three impeachment proceedings resulted in Senate acquittal (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton) or resignation before impeachment (Richard Nixon). If the Senate votes to dismiss the charges, it would be as if the “impeachment” were not even an impeachment because it lacked the color of law. Regardless of the technical process, Trump will remain as president and will still be running for reelection in 2020 with an excellent chance of winning.
Is there a chance that the House will not even vote to impeach Trump? That depends on the willingness of first-term Democrats in districts Trump won in 2016 to vote to impeach. They may be signing their political death warrants since those members were elected to pursue policies on health care and economic growth, not to impeach Trump. Those seats could easily flip back into Republican hands in 2020 and even cost Democrats control of the House.
The other reason would be if the public does not support impeachment. This is revealed by polls as described in this article. Here the news is not so good for Trump.
Polls are showing majority support for impeachment, including among independents (Democrats are overwhelmingly in favor just as Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed; the independents hold the balance of power).
Of course, these polls have many flaws, including oversampling Democrats and polling all voters instead of just registered voters. But for now, public support is combining with momentum in the Democratic caucus to drive the impeachment train to its final destination.
Get ready for fireworks in December as Trump becomes just the third president in U.S. history to be impeached.
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