Iran and the U.S. have engaged in round after round of hostage taking, sabotage, cyberwarfare, sanctions, negotiations and attempts at normalization since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The latest development, an important one, was Trump’s termination of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA, the nuclear constraint deal hammered out in 2015 by Iran, the
Did you know the Fed has been off by orders of magnitude on nine straight annual economic forecasts? Did you know the Fed has never accurately forecast a recession in 105 years? I could go on, but you get the point. The Fed has the worst forecasting record of any major finance-oriented institution. It’s not
Bitcoin is a funny combination of my least favorite topic and my most studied sector. It’s my least favorite because the nonsustainability, nonscalability and nonsecurity make bitcoin blaringly unsuitable as currency. It’s my most studied because I’m continually dragged into gold versus bitcoin debates on the gold side, so I take the time and effort
In a world where the U.K. voted to leave the EU, the U.S. elected Trump, Italy empowered its dissident Five Star Movement to enter a coalition government and Austria elected a 31-year-old rightist as its new prime minister, it’s fair to say the nationalist anti-immigration right wing is having its moment in the sun. A
We have recommended a reduced exposure to equities and increased allocation to cash for months. This reallocation of assets has obvious benefits. Equities are obviously vulnerable (still 4% below the January 2018 all-time high with asset inflation in FAANG stocks, financials and other sectors). Cash offers the double benefit of reduced portfolio volatility and increased
Vladimir Putin stands accused in the media and global public opinion of rigging his recent reelection, imprisoning his political enemies, murdering Russian spies turned double-agent, meddling in Western elections, seizing Crimea, destabilizing Ukraine, supporting a murderous dictator in Syria and exporting arms to terrorist nations like Iran. At the same time, the country of Russia
The Fed has the worst economic forecasting record of any major institution, with the IMF running a close second. Every year the Fed produces a one-year forward forecast. In 2009, a 2010 economic forecast is produced, and so on through today. If the Fed were off by a few tenths of one-percent, I’d be the
I’ve been a consistent critic of Jamie Dimon as CEO of J. P. Morgan and its predecessor banks where Dimon worked. He has enriched himself to billionaire status and JPMorgan Chase stock (JPM) is near an all-time high thanks in part to over $40 billion of stock buybacks. That’s fine for himself and his
“There’s more than one way to skin a cat.” As a long-time cat owner (one lived 13 years and the other 16 years), that’s not my favorite expression, but I’ll grant it’s true enough. It leads directly to the idea that, “There’s more than one way to win a trade war.” Typically, trade wars are
Dealing with the same topic of lackluster cash relevance in banks, this article is more sensational, but no less important. Just as Sweden is making the shift to electronic currency over cash, Russia is making U.S. Treasury securities disappear. According to an official U.S. Treasury report issued July 18, holdings of U.S. Treasury securities plunged 84%
