Meraglim Blog

Investors Have Been Warned About This Bad Sign. Now It’s Here.

  One of the oldest jokes in economics is that “the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” That’s a reference to the fact that stock markets tend to decline about six months before a recession, but they also decline at times when there is no recession. This makes the stock market

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If You Can’t Win a Trade War, Try Winning a Currency War Instead.

  The article above talks about China’s “nuclear option” in the trade wars. That’s a reference to China’s massive holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the possibility China could dump them on the market and drive up U.S. interest rates. The so-called nuclear option is a dud as the prior article explains. But, that does

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High-End Housing Is the Canary In the Coal Mine

In every financial crisis, there is one sector that leads the way down. Usually a year before a financial crisis comes to a head, a particular sector of the capital markets falls into a distressed state. Analysts first ignore the distress as an outlier because other sectors are performing well. Once the distress becomes too

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