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Here’s a Secret About Election Forecasting That Gives Trump a Big Edge

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Investors trying to handicap the 2020 presidential election should always bear in mind that 90% of the coverage and analysis you see and hear is filtered through a small band of anti-Trump reporters and channels based in New York and Washington, D.C. This group of mainstream media pundits got the 2016 election badly wrong; they gave Hillary Clinton a 90% chance of winning. Now they’re at it again.

The media mavens are shouting about Russia “collusion,” Trump “obstruction” and now a “cover-up” of the Mueller report findings. (Actually, you can buy the full Mueller report online from Amazon and have it delivered the next day. Congress doesn’t seem to care.) This is all part of an orchestrated effort to destroy Trump and make sure he loses in 2020.

This type of unprofessional behavior more or less guarantees Trump will win because it demonstrates his opponents have not learned anything from 2016. For a more realistic look at Trump’s 2020 prospects, I recommend this article.

While union bosses may be endorsing Joe Biden, the article explains why union rank and file support Trump. There has been a renaissance of manufacturing jobs under President Trump after Obama said those jobs were lost forever. These jobs are heavily concentrated in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, which are all traditionally Democratic states that voted for Trump in 2016.

This was the famous “blue wall” that was supposed to guarantee Hillary Clinton’s victory but instead supported Trump and gave him the win. If anything, Trump’s support in these states is even stronger now than it was in 2016 because he has delivered on his promises and improved the well-being of those workers who supported him.

Some analysts believe that Trump will carry not only the 30 states he won in 2016, but several additional states as well, for an even stronger overall victory. While the Hollywood, D.C. and New York elites focus on voters inside their thought bubbles, actual blue-collar voters spread across the Midwest, South and Mountain States will decide the election. Right now they’re leaning in Trump’s direction.

Institutional investors can schedule a proof of concept with the world’s first predictive data analytics firm combining human and artificial intelligence with complexity science. Check out Jim Rickard’s company at Meraglim Holdings to learn more.

 

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