Meraglim Blog

Rising Stock Markets Won’t Save You if the Currency Goes Down the Tubes

Most readers are familiar with the hyperinflation that plagued the German Weimar Republic in 1922–23. The hyperinflation actually began as early as 1919 in the aftermath of the First World War (1914–18) and the Treaty of Versailles (1919), which established reparations by Germany based on its responsibility for starting the war. 1922 and 1923 were

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Are Today’s Markets Headed for a 1929-Style Crash? History Says Yes

When I conduct market predicative analytics, I use four branches of science: complexity theory, Bayes’ rule, behavioral psychology and history. None of these disciplines is widely used on Wall Street, which seems wedded to obsolete methods such as value at risk, efficient-markets hypothesis and the normal distribution of market moves as reflected in the bell

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