Meraglim Blog

Think The U.S. Has Never Defaulted on Its Debt? Guess Again, It Has

Two of the articles above focus on a potential emerging-markets debt crisis. This would be the third emerging-markets debt crisis in 35 years. The first in this sequence was 1982–85 and was centered in Latin America. The second was 1997–98 and was centered in South Asia and Russia. (This sequence omits the Mexican Tequila Crisis

Read More »

The U.S. Is Putting the Screws to Iran. How Will Iran Fight Back?

In 2011–13, the Obama administration waged an effective war on Iran using financial weapons alone without firing a shot. Iran was denied access to the global dollar payments system (Fedwire and the Clearing House Association) and later denied access to the global payments system for all major currencies (SWIFT). The result was a collapse of

Read More »

King Dollar Is a Death Knell for Emerging Markets

Using the Fed’s broad real trade-weighted dollar index (my favorite FX metric, much better than DXY), the dollar hit an all-time high in March 1985 (128.4) and hit an all-time low in July 2011 (80.3). Right now, the index is 95.2, slightly below the middle of the 35-year range. But what matters most to trading

Read More »

Here We Go Again. A New Emerging-Markets Debt Crisis Has Begun

Emerging-markets, EM, debt crises arrive every 15 or 20 years almost like clockwork. The first crisis in recent decades began in 1982, reached a crescendo in 1985 and was not resolved until late 1989. That crisis involved mostly Latin American borrowers such as Argentina, Brazil and Chile (the so-called “ABC” debtors) and Mexico. It was

Read More »
Scroll to Top