My specialty is global macroeconomic analysis. I don’t usually get too involved in politics, and frankly, I’d prefer to avoid the subject altogether. But at certain times politics intrudes on markets and you have to account for it. With the midterm elections coming up in two weeks, it’s certainly a very important time right now.
Prior to and during the Holocaust, Jews in Nazi Germany were required to wear yellow six-pointed star badges on the outside of their clothes. Other targeted groups including gays, Catholics and Romani also had to wear unique insignia. This proved helpful to the Nazis when the time came to round up the targets and
The Chinese debt bomb has been a long time in the making and is getting ready to explode. For some, the reaction is, “So what? The borrowers are not defaulting and the government has plenty of money to bail them out if they do. What’s the worry?” First of all, the defaults are beginning to
Usually we select shorter articles to highlight or illustrate a point that’s new and relevant for investors. But occasionally we select a much longer article that does a deep dive into some fundamental market phenomena critical to unlocking the future. This is one of those. The writer, Jeff Snider, is widely regarded as one
The great Chinese growth slowdown has been proceeding in stages for the past two years. The reason is simple. Much of China’s “growth” (about 25% of the total) has consisted of wasted infrastructure investment in ghost cities and white elephant transportation infrastructure. That investment was financed with debt that now cannot be repaid. This
Warnings about China’s debt burdens and a potential debt crisis there are nothing new. China has a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than the U.S., and China’s central bank has printed more money since the 2008 financial crisis than the Federal Reserve. Much Chinese debt is denominated in dollars, which get harder to repay as the
