Meraglim Blog

Trump Will Call China’s Bluff in the Trade War

China has now adopted a new strategy in the ongoing trade war with the U.S. Their strategy is “Blame Trump!” China is taking the position that their requests are reasonable and that only Trump’s intransigence is holding up an agreement. Wall Street is cheering China because an end to the trade war will likely bring

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Even the “Bond King” Is Buying Gold

Readers know about the recent action in gold prices. The dollar price of gold moved from $1,270 per ounce to $1,440 per ounce from late May to late June. That’s a 13.3% gain in one month, which annualizes to a 160% return. Of course, gold is likely to level off a bit until we get

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This Is How Wars Begin

The South China Sea is a crowded place. It is surrounded by six countries (China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei; Taiwan is on the periphery, leaving aside the issue of whether Taiwan is a “country”). All of these countries lay some claim to exclusive economic zones that overlap in complicated ways because of

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The Longest Recovery Ever? Yes, but Also the Weakest

Although this may come as a surprise to some Americans, especially those stuck in the gig economy who have not had wage increases in years, the U.S. just set a record for the longest U.S. economic expansion ever recorded. As described in this article, the expansion began in June 2009 and just celebrated its 10th anniversary.

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Venezuela Is Losing All Its Gold. Where Is It Going?

The political and social situations in Venezuela are well-known. Venezuela is worse than a failed state. It is a humanitarian crisis of the utmost gravity. Its currency and economy have collapsed. Its role as a major oil exporter has been greatly diminished by economic sanctions. Venezuela’s illegitimate president, Nicolás Maduro, is holed up in the

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In a Global Three-Way Poker Game, the U.S. Is the Sucker

There’s an old saying in poker: If you’re in a three-way poker game and you don’t know who the sucker is… you’re the sucker. The idea is that in a three-handed game, two players will disadvantage the sucker by coordinating their betting and not raising each other. Eventually, the sucker is cleaned out and the

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Once You Move Sourcing out of China, It Doesn’t Come Back

A lot of the criticism of Trump’s trade war tactics with China is based on a misunderstanding of the dynamics of global trade and global supply chains. When the U.S. imports goods from China and then imposes a tariff, the analysts simply multiply the quantity of goods by the size of the tariff and proclaim

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