Over the past five years, we’ve pointed to many examples of the Federal Reserve’s lack of knowledge as to how the U.S. economy actually works. The Fed has never accurately predicted a recession. The Fed has never seen a financial panic in advance. Fed growth forecasts are incorrect by orders of magnitude year after
When critics point to Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200%, Japan’s defenders are quick to say that most of the Japanese debt is owned by the Japanese themselves in insurance companies, banks, pension plans and personal portfolios, not to mention the Bank of Japan. There’s truth in this. Japan has a highly homogenous culture.
“I will not be the one to break the peace we have made here today.” With those words, the Godfather, Don Corleone, played by Marlon Brando, ended the war among the five mafia families in New York. This peace was hammered out at a dinner among the heads of the five families. This weekend the
It’s difficult to think of anything the Fed has done right in the past 105 years. Monetary policy was too easy in 1927 as the stock market bubble was building. It was too tight in 1929 when the bubble finally burst. It was too tight again in 1937 as the U.S. economy was struggling
We’ve all heard the horrific accounts of how Saudi henchmen murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi. These accounts blend barbaric details with the sheer incompetence of the killers when it comes to operating in stealth and covering their tracks. This fiasco has landed squarely in the lap of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, “MbS,” who is
Bitcoin news this week was not confined to crashing prices. An even more ominous trend for bitcoin has emerged, as reported in this article. Bitcoin usage dropped almost 80% in the year ending last September. While bitcoin has always served as a speculative gamble and utility token for criminals, many advocates hoped that bitcoin could
Most mainstream economists and central banks insist that asset price bubbles are difficult to spot. That’s one reason they keep away from warning investors or intervening to deflate the bubble. As usual, the mainstream economists have it wrong. Bubbles are incredibly easy to spot, especially when you look at a time series of prices
The ranks of those predicting difficulties for the stock market and the economy keep getting more crowded. In recent weeks, we’ve pointed to establishment voices such as the IMF, the BIS, Larry Fink and Paul Tudor Jones as among those warning that the end of this record bull market is near. I’ve said for
My model for forecasting oil prices has three top-level factors, represented graphically by arrows pointing up, down or sideways. An up arrow is colored green and points to higher oil prices. A down arrow is colored red and points to lower oil prices. The sideways arrow is colored grey and suggests that the relevant factor
One of the questions I am asked most frequently in my global travels is what will be the cause of the next financial crisis. This question is asked by those who understand that this crisis is coming but want to pin down the date or a specific turn of events that will help them know
