For too long, Americans have been suffering under the myth that China is the invincible super-power of the twenty-first-century and it will surpass the U.S. in wealth and influence in a matter of just a few years. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is true that China is the world’s second largest economy
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts talk endlessly about anonymity and encryption. These are supposed to be antidotes to state control. The truth is that major payments systems such as VISA and MasterCard are heavily encrypted and all payments systems offer anonymity to the outside world unless you are the target of a criminal investigation or lawsuit. For that
U.S. economic sanctions are being applied like never before. Current targets include North Korea, Syria, Cuba, Iran, Turkey, China, Russia, and Venezuela. Several other countries are under consideration for tariffs and sanctions or on a waiting list. These sanctions are highly effective. The Iranian economy almost imploded in 2013 under prior sanctions and is imploding
Turkey’s economic problems are well-known. President Erdoğan has appointed relatives and cronies to key economic policy positions. This has caused a loss of independence of the central bank and a loss of confidence in the stability of the currency, the Turkish lira. The lira collapse has triggered hyperinflation and a stock market crash. Bond
Several years ago, I began warning my readers that a global trade war was likely in the wake of the currency wars. This forecast did not seem like a stretch. It would simply be a replay of the sequence that prevailed from 1921–39 as the original currency war started by Weimar Germany morphed into trade
Andrew Sheng is one of the most astute and plugged-in analysts on the Chinese economy. I read his work on a regular basis and it is always worth the time and effort. Sheng has been highly critical of many Chinese economic initiatives and has pointed out their flaws. In this article, he takes a more positive
This time last year I made some headlines with an analysis that indicated the U.S. and North Korea were on a path to war that would probably erupt in the spring of 2018. The analysis was straightforward. North Korea was testing intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Once these technologies were mastered, a warhead could
If you rely on U.S. mainstream media, you might think that Russia was on its last legs. Mainstream outlets like The New York Times and the Washington Post continually publicize U.S. sanctions on Russia and the supposedly declining Russian economy and diminished hard currency reserves. The opposite is true. Russian growth has slowed a bit, but is still strong.
Financial media were filled with headlines last week about the new Mexican-U.S. trade deal designed to replace NAFTA. The Canadians began negotiating a similar deal at the last minute. It’s not clear if Canada can join the U.S. and Mexico in a “new NAFTA” or if the Mexican-U.S. deal will stand alone, but either way
The Federal Reserve has existed for 105-years; it was founded in 1913. The Fed prides itself on economic forecasting, which it uses for purposes of setting monetary policy. The U.S. has had 19 recessions since the Fed was created and the Fed has predicted none of them. That’s right. With all of its forecasting machinery, the Fed
