Meraglim Blog

King Dollar Is a Death Knell for Emerging Markets

Using the Fed’s broad real trade-weighted dollar index (my favorite FX metric, much better than DXY), the dollar hit an all-time high in March 1985 (128.4) and hit an all-time low in July 2011 (80.3). Right now, the index is 95.2, slightly below the middle of the 35-year range. But what matters most to trading

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Here We Go Again. A New Emerging-Markets Debt Crisis Has Begun

Emerging-markets, EM, debt crises arrive every 15 or 20 years almost like clockwork. The first crisis in recent decades began in 1982, reached a crescendo in 1985 and was not resolved until late 1989. That crisis involved mostly Latin American borrowers such as Argentina, Brazil and Chile (the so-called “ABC” debtors) and Mexico. It was

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Millennials: All We Are Saying Is Give Socialism a Chance.

A strange alliance between 70-something Democratic leaders and millennial voters is emerging. Many of the top candidates for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2020, including Bernie Sanders (actually a Socialist Party member running as a Democrat) and Elizabeth Warren, are openly espousing socialist policies including guaranteed basic income, government-guaranteed jobs, forgiveness of student loan

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To Evade U.S. Sanctions on Iran, Europeans Plan to Ditch the Dollar.

The state of play regarding President Trump’s decision to terminate the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with Iran and to reimpose sanctions is in a state of flux. Here’s a quick overview: The JCPOA was the 2015 deal among the U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia, Germany and Iran to limit Iran’s nuclear weapons program

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George Soros signals that Tesla will go bankrupt.

Usually when a savvy investor like George Soros invests $35 million in your company, that’s considered a good thing and a vote of confidence. Not this time. Soros just purchased $35 million of Tesla bonds, according to this article. The bonds carry an attractive yield and are convertible into Tesla stock so it might be a

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