Fed Chair Jay Powell just sent the most powerful signal from the Fed since March 2015. The Fed has taken a March 2019 rate hike off the table until further notice. At a forum in Atlanta last Friday, reported in this article, Powell used the word “patient” to describe the Fed’s approach to the next interest rate hike.
When Powell did this, he was reading from a script of prepared remarks in what was otherwise billed as a “roundtable discussion.” This is a sign that Powell was being extremely careful to get his words exactly right. When Powell said the Fed would be “patient” in reference to the next rate hike, this was not just happy talk. The word “patient” is Fed code for “no rate hikes until we give you a clear signal.”
This interpretation is backed up by the Fed’s past use of verbal cues to signal ease or tightening in lieu of actual rate hikes or cuts. Prior to March 2015, the Fed consistently used the word “patient” in their FOMC statements. This was a signal that there would not be a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Investors could do carry trades safely.
Only when the word “patient” was removed was the Fed signaling that rate hikes were back on the table. In that event, investors were being given fair warning to unwind carry trades and move to risk-off positions.
In March 2015, Yellen removed the word “patient” from the statement. In fact, the first rate hike (the “liftoff”) did not happen until December 2015, but the market was on notice through the June and September 2015 FOMC meetings that it could happen. Now, for the first time since 2015, the word “patient” is back in the Fed’s statements, which means no future Fed rate hikes without fair warning.
For now, the Fed is rescuing markets with a risk-on signal. That’s why the market rallied last Friday. But we’re not out of the woods.
The U.S. stock market had already anticipated the Fed would not raise rates in March. Friday’s statement by Powell confirms that, but this verbal ease is already priced in. As usual the markets will want some ice cream to go with the big piece of cake they just got from Powell. So we’re in wait-and-see mode.
The next FOMC meeting is Jan. 30. If the Fed does not repeat the word “patient,” markets could be in for an extremely negative reaction.
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