Two of the articles above focus on a potential emerging-markets debt crisis. This would be the third emerging-markets debt crisis in 35 years. The first in this sequence was 1982–85 and was centered in Latin America. The second was 1997–98 and was centered in South Asia and Russia. (This sequence omits the Mexican Tequila Crisis
In 2011–13, the Obama administration waged an effective war on Iran using financial weapons alone without firing a shot. Iran was denied access to the global dollar payments system (Fedwire and the Clearing House Association) and later denied access to the global payments system for all major currencies (SWIFT). The result was a collapse of
Using the Fed’s broad real trade-weighted dollar index (my favorite FX metric, much better than DXY), the dollar hit an all-time high in March 1985 (128.4) and hit an all-time low in July 2011 (80.3). Right now, the index is 95.2, slightly below the middle of the 35-year range. But what matters most to trading
Emerging-markets, EM, debt crises arrive every 15 or 20 years almost like clockwork. The first crisis in recent decades began in 1982, reached a crescendo in 1985 and was not resolved until late 1989. That crisis involved mostly Latin American borrowers such as Argentina, Brazil and Chile (the so-called “ABC” debtors) and Mexico. It was
A strange alliance between 70-something Democratic leaders and millennial voters is emerging. Many of the top candidates for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2020, including Bernie Sanders (actually a Socialist Party member running as a Democrat) and Elizabeth Warren, are openly espousing socialist policies including guaranteed basic income, government-guaranteed jobs, forgiveness of student loan
Policymakers and everyday citizens around the world breathed a sigh of relief last winter when tensions between the U.S. and North Korea were dialed down and a fruitful dialogue began. Now the Korean situation is headed for a summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump in Singapore on June 12. That’s a huge improvement
Conventional wisdom says that when tensions rise and war threatens in the Middle East, oil prices have to skyrocket. We’re seeing a little bit of that right now. Iran is confronting Israel in Gaza and Saudi Arabia in Yemen even as the U.S. confronts Iran with economic sanctions. Things will likely get a lot worse
The state of play regarding President Trump’s decision to terminate the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with Iran and to reimpose sanctions is in a state of flux. Here’s a quick overview: The JCPOA was the 2015 deal among the U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia, Germany and Iran to limit Iran’s nuclear weapons program
We’ve all heard the “peak oil” story for years. That’s the theoretical point where all of the significant reserves of oil have been discovered, output is at a maximum and production then declines steadily year after year from that point. It turns out peak oil is a myth, at least so far. New oil is
