By now you’ve heard that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019. That was reported by the Commerce Department last Friday morning. That strong growth coming on top of 4.2% in Q2 2018 and 3.4% in Q3 2018 means that in the past twelve months, the
In January 2018, two significant market events occurred nearly simultaneously. Major U.S. stock market indexes peaked and volatility indexes extended one of their longest streaks of low volatility in history. Investors were happy, complacency ruled the day and all was right with the world. Then markets were turned upside down in a matter of days.
The first-quarter GDP number was released this morning. And at 3.2%, it came in far above estimates. Consensus was about 2.3%. It was also the highest Q1 GDP print since 2015. But there’s probably less here than meets the eye. About half the GDP gain came from a surge in inventories and a sharp reduction
The race is on for dominance in the coming world of 5G smartphones and telecommunications. 5G is an abbreviation of “fifth generation” in upload/download speeds and is the successor to the well-established 4G standard we use today. These much-higher speeds will allow more video and music streaming and downloads and enable more multitasking. The profits
This article describes the rise of the food delivery business through the use of apps and gig economy drivers from Uber and other services. The delivery services reach agreement with a wide variety of restaurants and fast-food outlets to deliver their meals. Then they create an app and distribute this to a customer base that is oriented
The focus of the anti-Trump forces has shifted. Trump was not removed from office as his opponents had hoped. And the long-awaited Mueller report on “collusion” by Trump with Russia has turned out to be an anticlimax showing no collusion. In fact, Trump is on track to complete a mainly successful first term. Instead, the
Trump has already exerted more influence over one institution than any other president in over 100 years — the Federal Reserve. That’s because Trump has had more control over Fed personnel than any president since the Fed was founded in 1913. As I’ve written before, Trump now “owns” the Fed. When Trump was sworn in,
We’ve reported extensively on Russia’s accumulation of gold, their development efforts at a private internet and cryptocurrency to control communications and money and actions the they’ve taken to defeat U.S. economic sanctions. Where is all of this leading? This article provides some of the answers. At a meeting of Russian students and professors at Russia’s Diplomatic Academy,
A few weeks ago, I unveiled my first forecast on the outcome of the 2020 presidential race. My estimate was that Trump had a 60% chance of winning. I was also careful to explain that my forecasting model includes constant updating (using what’s called Bayes’ rule) and would no doubt change between now and Election
When President Trump was sworn in on Jan. 20, 2017, he inherited two vacant seats on the seven-person board of governors of the Federal Reserve System. Holders of those two seats are also members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the group that sets U.S. interest rates and monetary policies. President Obama also had
