It’s far too early to make hard-and-fast predictions on who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2020. My estimate today is that Biden will fade, Sanders will hang in there (even though he’s not liked by the Democratic establishment) and Warren may gain in the homestretch.
And as I mentioned in last week’s Five Links, let’s not count out Hillary Clinton. She has been staging campaign-style events and may just be waiting for a deadlocked convention or a frontrunner stumble before being turned to by the party as a white knight candidate.
For a consensus view, this article lists the top 10 Democratic candidates as of now. (The candidates ranked between 11–23 are barely showing 1% in the polls today; some are at 0%, so it’s safe to ignore them for now).
As expected, Joe Biden is ranked No. 1 with a strong lead in the polls. But that’s mostly based on name recognition. He’s likely to fade once voters get a closer look at him in the debates and once the multimillion-dollar crony deals with China and Ukraine involving his son are fully vetted.
Sanders and Warren are Nos. 2 and 3 respectively. They may do well in the New Hampshire primary since both are from neighboring states, Sanders from Vermont and Warren from Massachusetts. Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg round out the top five although both are in single digits in national polls.
The rest of the top 10 are in the low single digits as some such as Beto O’Rourke are fading fast. All of these candidates will have a difficult time beating Trump, but for now they’re off and running for the chance to go up against him.
Keep an eye on Warren; she’s a dark horse who’s showing real progress. She may also be the worst choice for investors because of her high-tax, pro-regulation policies.
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