The odds of an impeachment of President Trump by the House of Representatives fluctuate daily. There is a large group of House Democrats who firmly want impeachment and are ready to begin the hearings tomorrow. There is another large group of moderate Democrats, many newly elected, who want to keep away from impeachment and instead focus on legislation involving matters voters care about such as health care, immigration and infrastructure.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is trying to balance these competing factions by favoring investigations but discouraging actual impeachment proceedings. She knows that’s a political loser for the Democrats. But by playing with fire, Pelosi may get burned with an actual impeachment process whether she likes it or not.
One thing that’s not in doubt is the ultimate outcome of a trial in the Senate. Impeachment is just an accusation; it does not remove the president from office. Removal requires a conviction in the Senate.
As this article explains, the Senate is firmly under Republican control. If impeachment occurs, you can expect the trial in the Senate to be relatively brief and lead to Trump’s acquittal.
This is exactly what happened to Bill Clinton in 1998–1999. After his Senate trial was over, Clinton was more popular than ever. The same thing will happen with Trump.
A House impeachment followed by a Senate acquittal will more or less solidify Trump’s chances of winning reelection in 2020. It should be an interesting next six months in Congress.
This will definitely add to volatility and uncertainty in markets. Investors should stay focused on the conclusion of this article: Trump will prevail.
Institutional investors can schedule a proof of concept with the world’s first predictive data analytics firm combining human and artificial intelligence with complexity science. Check out Jim Rickard’s company at Meraglim Holdings to learn more.