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It’s Early in the Game, but Models Are Already Predicting a Trump Victory

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I’m not surprised that Trump supporters believe he’s going to win reelection in 2020. What’s amazing is the number of Democrats and Trump opponents who think the same thing.

This article is a survey of recent model outputs that show Trump is a clear favorite in the 2020 presidential election. Models are not polls. Instead, they take various data points such as economic growth, unemployment, real wages and whether the nation is at war. These inputs are then put into models built on past elections and correlations are determined based on whether past presidents won or lost.

The models discussed here were produced by Steven Rattner, an Obama adviser, and Mark Zandi, another Obama supporter. No one can accuse them of pro-Trump bias. They are also seasoned Wall Street hands who focus on the most reliable results regardless of whether it fits their political preference or not.

My own model currently has Trump at a 65% probability of winning, although that probability has room to grow as we move closer to Election Day without a recession. Election Day is still far away, but the early signs definitely favor Trump.

That result also favors investors looking for continued economic expansion and continuation of one of the longest bull markets in history.

Institutional investors can schedule a proof of concept with the world’s first predictive data analytics firm combining human and artificial intelligence with complexity science. Check out Jim Rickard’s company at Meraglim Holdings to learn more.

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