Meraglim Blog

It’s Not Just About Financial War. The Shooting Wars are Getting Closer.

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn

Regular readers are familiar with the thesis that currency wars lead to trade wars and finally to shooting wars. This was the sequence in Europe and Asia from 1921 to 1939, and something similar is playing out today.

The new currency war started in 2010 and the new trade war began in 2018. Both the currency war and the trade war are raging side-by-side right now. The question is whether these conflicts can be resolved or mitigated or whether another shooting war is the inevitable outcome.

The news in this article is not encouraging in this regard. Japan is sending assault vessels to the South China Sea to confront a more aggressive posture by the Chinese. Japan has had a clause in its constitution since the end of World War II that prevents the creation of an offensive military capability. However, the line between offensive and defensive capabilities has long been ignored and Japan has a robust navy and air force.

Japan has been more overt in recent years about displaying and deploying its military forces. A robust debate is going on in Japan today about amending the constitution to permit an explicit offensive military capability. Japan is sending a message to the Chinese about its efforts to dominate the Western Pacific Ocean and the waters around Japan.

The U.S., India and others have joined Japan is this effort. For its part, China refuses to back down and insists on its control of the South China Sea.

For now, no shots have been fired. Yet, the chance of an accidental shooting confrontation keep going up as more nations send vessels and aircraft to the area.

Let’s hope the situation does not play out in accordance with the 1930s script. Investors are well advised to increase allocations to cash and gold in case it does

Accredited investors interested in learning more about Jim Rickard’s private placement in the world’s first predictive data analytics startup that combines human and artificial intelligence with complexity science should check out his offering at Meraglim Holdings. Click the link to learn more.

 

IF THE SCIENCE IS NOT ON YOUR SIDE, JUST TRY THREATS

It’s clear that good science does not support the extreme claims of the climate alarmists. Yes, there is such a thing as climate change, but it’s slow, difficult to predict and almost impossible to model because of the complexity of the process. The climate alarmists have grabbed most of the headlines for the past ten

Read More »

WHY TRUMP WILL WIN REELECTION: NOT POLLS OR PUNDITS; JUST COMMON SENSE

Political analysts use polls, betting odds, historic trends and other inputs to make their (usually wrong) political predictions. We all remember that “experts” said Hillary Clinton would win the presidency in 2016 (they gave her a 92% chance on the morning of the election), and that the UK would vote to “remain” in the EU

Read More »

HERE’S ANOTHER ELITE WITH ANOTHER PLAN TO TAX AWAY YOUR WEALTH

The elites never rest when it comes to devising new ways to take your money through taxes, inflation or outright confiscation. The latest Trojan horse the elites are riding to take your money is climate change. The climate does change over long periods of time for reasons that are not well understood except that they

Read More »

KRUGMAN SHOWS HE KNOWS LITTLE ABOUT ECONOMICS AND LESS ABOUT FINANCE

We already knew that Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman knows almost nothing about economics. Now, we see from this article that he knows nothing about banking either. Krugman claims that the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the actions of banks in general were not the cause of the 2008 financial crisis. The conventional wisdom is that Lehman Brothers,

Read More »
Scroll to Top