Meraglim Blog

Why monkeys do better than professional forecasters….

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The attached graph has powerful information and might make a good addition to our website or marketing materials.
The dark blue line is the actual path of interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note from 2000-2018.
The lighter colored lines are a consensus of professional forecasters, color-coded by year, with recent forecasts going out to 2020. So, each year they make a multi-year forecast, then the next year they make another multi-year forecast, and so on over the years.
Notice how the trend line of actual rates is down, and the trend line of 100% of the forecasts is up. In other words professional forecasters are not only wrong about the target level, they are directionally wrong, persistently wrong, and wrong by orders of magnitude.
Not clear how these people keep their jobs, except that it’s all a game and everyone’s in on the joke (except customers who rely on this junk).
Seriously, these people are not stupid or venal, but they do have bad models. Bad models = bad forecasts, 100% of the time.
The world is waiting for a better forecasting tool. RAVEN™, patent pending, is it.

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