It’s far too soon to make definitive forecasts about who will win the presidential election in 2020. But it’s not too soon to offer forecasts about who will not win. Right now Joe Biden tops that list.

Of course he’s ahead in the national polls, but there’s no such thing as a national election in the U.S. Primaries go state by state and the general election also goes state by state through the Electoral College. “National” polls that show Biden ahead by 20 points or more are mostly about name recognition and are not conducted at the state level.

A huge advantage in California and New York (both of which obviously go to the Democrats in the general election) does you no good when the fight is actually in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. When you look at separate polls for the early primary states, Biden’s lead in Iowa and New Hampshire is much smaller.

This article highlights another Biden weakness. While Biden was vice president, he was busy organizing sweetheart deals in the name of his son, Hunter Biden, with China and Ukraine. China gave Hunter Biden over $1.5 billion for a private equity fund. At standard 2% management fees, that means $30 million per year to the fund managers, including Hunter Biden.

Then Hunter Biden received over $3 million as an officer of a Ukrainian energy firm. Meanwhile, Joe Biden threatened to withhold over $1 billion in U.S. aid if Ukraine did not fire the prosecutor looking into wrongdoing by his son. The prosecutor was fired.

With scandals like these (and more) waiting in the wings, Biden’s run for the nomination should be a short one. Look for Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris or one of the other top-tier Democratic contenders to emerge from the pack by next March. Investors should study their economic policies closely (higher taxes, more regulation, Green New Deal) to prepare for what may be coming.

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