Investors are well aware of the Fed’s historic pivot at the end of 2018. From December 2015 to December 2018, the Fed had been moving ahead with rate hikes. They had taken the fed funds target rate from 0% to 2.25% in small 0.25% increments over three years with occasional “pauses” along the way. Then
It’s one thing when a nonmainstream economist criticizes mainstream economics. That happens all the time and is for the most part ignored by economists. It’s another thing when a member in good standing of the economic elite unleashes a harsh criticism. That’s a sure sign that the mainstream neo-Keynesian consensus is on its last legs.
While worries about a U.S. debt default in the future are increasing, the Chinese are engaged in massive defaults today. This article reports that Chinese defaults are accelerating. These defaults are coming from the corporate sector and include both dollar-denominated and local currency bonds. As large as these defaults are, they are just the tip of the
We’ve all heard reports about how U.S. deficits are out of control and the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is heading toward a complete loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar. These facts are true enough, but they beg the question of when the crackup will arrive. Both Japan and Italy have higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the
The U.K. Brexit referendum on whether to remain with or leave the European Union (EU) took place on June 23, 2016. The result was a clear victory for the “leave” forces. But markets were shocked. All the “experts” had predicted voters would elect to stay. I was among the few to prepare investors for that
The Battle of Britain (1940) was one of the most famous and important conflicts in history. The Battle of Brexit is proving no less decisive even if the weapons are financial and political, not kinetic. The U.K. joined the European Communities in 1973 and that membership was ratified by a U.K. referendum in 1975. Membership
The list of policy and predictive failures by mainstream economists is longer than the typical 9-year-old’s Christmas list. They failed to foresee the 2007 mortgage bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. They cheered “green shoots” in 2009 when that was a complete illusion. They welcomed the “recovery summer” in 2010, which was nothing but more
Yesterday I discussed modern monetary theory (MMT) and how it’s become very popular in Democratic circles. That’s because it allows for much greater government spending without having to raise everyone’s taxes. And everyday citizens could get behind it because it promises to fund lots of programs without seeing their taxes raised. What’s not to like?
MMT supporters will point to 2008 and say, “Just look at QE. In 2008, the Federal Reserve Balance sheet was $800 billion. But as a result of QE1, QE2, and QE3, that number went to $4.5 trillion. And the world didn’t end. To the contrary, the stock market went on a huge bull run.We did
Remember tether? That’s a cryptocurrency that calls itself a “stable coin.” A stable coin says that its value remains constant against some other type of currency. In theory, this offers the benefits of cryptocurrency usage (anonymity, easy transfer abroad, etc.) without the volatility that comes from speculation and panics (bitcoin fell 80% in a matter
