I’m fairly critical of a number of senior intelligence community leaders who politicized their agencies and operated behind the scenes to derail President Trump before he was even sworn in. These co-conspirators and “bad cops” include John Brennan (CIA), James Clapper (DNI) and James Comey (FBI). But their actions don’t mean that the entire barrel of apples was rotten.
There are some outstanding leaders in the intelligence community whose views are worth heeding as America faces challenges from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and others. One such leader is Navy Adm. Michael Rogers, who was both commander of the U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency (NSA) until his retirement in 2018.
Many analysts (myself included) have characterized the current U.S.-China confrontation as a new cold war. In this article, Rogers makes the point that whether you regard the current situation as a cold war or not, the tactics used in confronting China will need to be updated.
A simple replay of the first Cold War (1946–1991) against the Soviet Union (today Russia) will not suffice. Rogers says that Russia was a political, diplomatic and military threat, but it was never an economic threat.
Today China is a major economic threat alongside its political and military ambitions. Rogers concludes that containment won’t work because the global economy is too integrated. Instead, we will have to outpace the Chinese through competition and innovation.
In particular, he praises public-private partnerships that can leverage government resources and private innovation to maintain and extend our technological lead over China. That makes sense. It’s also good news for those companies best able to join with the government in creative ways.
The defense contractors are obvious candidates. Apple and Intel are well positioned also. Google and Facebook seem bogged down in political correctness and disputes with their own employees, so they are less likely to contribute or participate.
If Rogers is right (and, in my view, he is), then Apple stands to be a big winner as the New Cold War unfolds.
Institutional investors can schedule a proof of concept with the world’s first predictive data analytics firm combining human and artificial intelligence with complexity science. Check out Jim Rickard’s company at Meraglim Holdings to learn more.