My proprietary model currently gives Trump a 63% of winning re-election in 2020. (This is the same model I used to predict Trump would win in 2016 and the U.K. would vote to “leave” the EU. Both predictions were against all odds.)
My 63% estimate may be a bit low, but I’m maintaining a conservative approach this early in the process. Importantly, there will be many updates along the way (that’s part of the Bayesian statistical method I use). It’s far too early to put a stake in the ground and declare a winner.
There are a number of variables I use in the model. One of the important inputs that almost every analyst has overlooked is the third-party candidacy of Howard Schultz.
Liberal media won’t mention Schultz because they believe he helps Trump (he does). If Schultz takes just 15% of the vote (likely, in my view), then Trump only needs 43% to win (instead of 51%). That’s well within reach.
Yet a bigger factor is the U.S. economy. Simply put, Trump’s odds of victory are roughly the inverse of the probability of a recession before the third quarter of 2020. My initial estimate of recession odds was 40% (giving Trump the inverse, or 60% chance of victory). But the odds go down each month (because the recession window gets shorter) so Trump’s odds go up.
Now, this article provides some more good news for Trump. A prominent economist has estimated the impact of Trump’s tax cuts and sees 3.1% real GDP growth through at least 2019.
Even if growth slips a little after that, it should remain out of recession by a comfortable margin. This will put Trump’s odds of victory at 90% by Election Day in 2020. As a famous political strategist once said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
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