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Can the Market for Bitcoin Get Any Worse? The Answer Is “Yes”

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I did a television interview in December 2017 at a time when the price of bitcoin was going up $1,000 per week. The interview went viral and had over 1 million likes on Facebook.

On the exact day of the interview, bitcoin was around $8,000 per coin. My forecast was that bitcoin would go to $20,000 and then crash on its way to $200 as a criminal token. So far, that’s exactly what has happened.

You can see the interview here. Today, bitcoin has crashed to about $4,000 per coin, down 80% from its top and well on its way to my $200 per coin forecast.

Lately, the drop has accelerated in percentage terms even beyond the January–February crash earlier this year. This recent crash within a crash is detailed in this article.

The problem with a crash of this kind is that confidence is destroyed, liquidity dries up and momentum gathers, setting the stage for further losses. Bubbles are not symmetric in their price patterns. The rising part of the bubble is characterized by slow price gains that accelerate and then quickly go hyperbolic. This is the classic “hockey stick” chart.

Once the bubble bursts, the initial drop is steep, but this is followed by a series of rallies that fade followed by another rally in a pattern called “lower highs.” It can take a few years for a hockey stick bubble to reach its destination low. This is due to denial, wishful thinking and groupthink among the late buyers who have suffered the greatest losses during the bubble stage.

Meanwhile, the early buyers took the money and ran for the hills. There’s nothing left of bitcoin except disappointment and the occasional pump-and-dump by the miners. Good luck with that.

Institutional investors can schedule a proof of concept with the world’s first predictive data analytics firm combining human and artificial intelligence with complexity science. Check out Jim Rickard’s company at Meraglim Holdings to learn more.

 

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