I usually don’t circulate articles in which almost everything the author says is way off base, but sometimes it’s instructive to see just how wrong our most famous commentators can be.
This article is written by Anatole Kaletsky, a prominent financial analyst and globalist. It was written in advance of the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires and high-profile dinner between President Trump and President Xi Jinping on Dec. 1, so we have the benefit of hindsight in assessing Kaletsky’s forecast. Kaletsky says Trump’s motto is “shout loudly and carry a white flag.”
In effect, Trump is belligerent and threatening in the early stages of a negotiation, but he settles for little and walks away declaring “victory.” Based on this, Kaletsky expects an early end to the trade war with China with little more than superficial gains for the U.S. That’s completely wrong.
Trump may have agreed to a 90-day timeout as negotiations continue, but he’s no less determined to press ahead in the negotiations. Trump will not settle for cheap concessions, so investors should expect the trade wars to escalate and continue perhaps for years.
Like most pro-China globalists, Kaletsky touts the fact that China has already agreed to 40% of the U.S. demands. Big deal. Does this mean that China has a free hand to violate the other 60%? Not according to Trump and his chief negotiator, Robert Lighthizer.
By the way, I debated Brexit with Kaletsky in Switzerland in March 2016, when he predicted the U.K. would vote to “remain” and I predicted the U.K. would vote to “leave.” He was wrong about Brexit and he’s more wrong about the trade wars.
Nothing is more important to Trump and he will see this through. That means a rocky ride for investors despite the elite happy talk from Kaletsky and his ilk.
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