I’m not surprised that Trump supporters believe he’s going to win reelection in 2020. What’s amazing is the number of Democrats and Trump opponents who think the same thing. This article is a survey of recent model outputs that show Trump is a clear favorite in the 2020 presidential election. Models are not polls. Instead, they take
The U.S. and Chinese governments have made their views on the ongoing trade wars clear. The U.S. insists that China is breaking all the rules and China insists that they will not allow the U.S. to dictate the operation of their economy. What about the global elites? They are watching from the sidelines since the
The odds of an impeachment of President Trump by the House of Representatives fluctuate daily. There is a large group of House Democrats who firmly want impeachment and are ready to begin the hearings tomorrow. There is another large group of moderate Democrats, many newly elected, who want to keep away from impeachment and instead
We’ve heard a lot about the China-U.S. trade war from the U.S. side. President Trump and Vice President Pence have strongly criticized the Chinese for subsidized Chinese exports, theft of intellectual property, requiring U.S. companies in China to hand over trade secrets, currency manipulation and other unfair trade practices. In his landmark speech on Oct.
It’s far too early to make hard-and-fast predictions on who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2020. My estimate today is that Biden will fade, Sanders will hang in there (even though he’s not liked by the Democratic establishment) and Warren may gain in the homestretch. And as I mentioned in last week’s
What are the three elements of the perfect political and market storm I see coming together this fall? The first is an effort by the Democratic House of Representatives to impeach President Trump. The second is the socialist-progressive tilt in the 2020 presidential election field. The third is the fallout from the Mueller report and
People often refer to the “perfect storm.” A perfect storm is generally understood as two or more events that are independent but converge to produce an outcome much worse than either event alone. The term is an overused cliché, and as a writer I avoid clichés whenever possible. But though rare, perfect storms do exist.
There’s nothing new about the Russian accumulation of gold bullion in their reserve position. It began in a material way in 2009 when Russia had about 600 metric tonnes of gold. Today, Russia has 2,183 metric tonnes, a stunning 264% increase in less than 10 years. Russia is the sixth-largest gold power in the
This is one of the saddest articles I’ve ever read. It’s a lament by millennials that climate change is ruining their adult lives. Never mind that global warming stopped in 1995, polar bear populations are thriving and sea level increases are only 1.5mm per year. That is about the width of a penny viewed from the side
The stock market seems to rise or fall almost daily based on the latest news from the front lines of the trade wars. When Trump threatens new tariffs and China threatens to retaliate in kind, stocks fall. When Trump delays the tariffs and China agrees to resume negotiations, stocks rise. And so it goes. It
